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  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 11:17 pm on July 29, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: Quotes,   

    Famous Quotes on Education 

    • “Education is a progressive discovery of our own ignorance” – Will Durant
    • “If you cannot explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough” – Albert Einstein.
    • “Education’s purpose is to replace an empty mind with an open one” – Malcolm Forbes.
    • “To the uneducated, an ‘A’ is just three sticks” – A.A Milne.
    • “Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune” - Jim Rohn.
    • “I have never let my schooling interfere with my education” – Mark Twain.

    I think my quote would be ”my education started after I began trading”.

    Steve Arthur – Trader and Trading Coach

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 10:31 pm on July 29, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , Greed, , ,   

    Greed and Fear 

    There are only two things at work in the financial markets, greed and fear.  Almost everything that occurs is a result of one or both of these two primal instinctual emotions.  When you boil the markets down to their very essence there is nothing else.

    The financial markets are made up of people buying and selling and these people are motivated by their greed and fear.  On the one hand they are driven by their greed for money and materialistic possessions and on the other their fear of losing what they perceive to be theirs already.

    Greed will tell you to over trade (commit more than your account can afford).

    Greed will tell you, it’s never going down again or it’s never going up again.

    Fear will tell you enter before you should, it will tell you that you’re missing out.

    Fear will tell you to take your profit too soon, for fear of losing it.

    We are all driven by our greed and fear and we drive the markets.

    It’s knowing when to be greedy and when to be fearful that will make you a great trader.

    Steve Arthur – Trader and Trading Coach

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 7:55 pm on July 29, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: Nicolas Darvas, Recommended Books,   

    How I made $2,000,000 in The Stock market 

    From the back cover of How I made $2,000,000 in the stock market; “How did a world famous dancer with no knowledge of the stock market or of finance in general, make 2 million dollars in the stock market in 18 months starting with only $10,000?”

    I believe that every trader of the stock market should read this book, I know I related to it immediately and realised where I had been going wrong up until that point.

    Here is an excerpt from the book that many of you may relate to;

    “I BROUGHT AT THE TOP    Stock market

    As soon as I brought

    The stock started to drop

    I became frightened

    AND SOLD AT THE BOTTOM

    As soon as I sold

    The stock started to rise

    I became greedy

    AND BROUGHT AT THE TOP

    I developed a tremendous frustration. Instead of blaming my own stupidity, I invented different reasons for my failures. I started to believe in ‘They’.”

    Find out what he was doing wrong and what he did right to make $2,000,000 in the stock market.

    And what is even more incredible is that he did it in the 1950′s, when $2,000,000 was a serious amount of money.

    Steve Arthur – Trader and Trading Coach

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 5:59 pm on July 29, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: Bank of america, , caterpillar, citigroup, , DOW, , , financial crisis, GDP, , Initial Claims, , market downtrend, moodys, , , quantative easing, regulatory reform, revenue estimates, , S&P500, , US government, wells fargo   

    What is the outlook on the economy? 29th July 2010 

    We all want to know the outlook on the economy going forward

    it’s not great at all,  but markets rally up in down turns just as they fall in up markets,  we need to let the market confirm its long term downward direction before going short these rallies are designed to take the shorts out.

    The outlook on the economy is not healthy when you look at the unemployment rate.
    Initial claims tonight will be our first way of looking at the outlook on the economy each week, let’s see whether there is a short term improvement or it is worse. Then we have the GDP numbers tomorrow night they are expected to be released at 2.9%, then on August the 10th the FED members meet again to discuss quantative easing which means printing more money, if they do it’s very likely that we will see a similar rally of March 2009 but on a much -much smaller scale.
    Another round of quantative easing will be the last tool Bernanke can use to avoid the next leg down in this recession.
    outlook on the economy
    If flooding the system with more money fails to lift equity markets, then all hell will break loose in the markets and it will be a perfect time to go short.
    By doing this they will have used all their aces up their sleeves as they can’t lower interests rate they’re already are at 0%.

    Outlook on the economy in the short term

    If the S&P breaks above 1120 a retest of 1150-1170 which puts the DOW at 10,700.
    High unemployment remains a drag on the economy I have noticed the companies that have exceeded their quarterly earnings have been companies like Caterpillar, United Parcel, and John Deere to name a few companies that have revenue outside of the US.
    The stream of earnings news continues to be strong, now that 49 percent of the S&P 500 companies have reported. Earnings have risen an average 42 percent, and 77 percent of the companies have beaten earnings estimates. Sixty-four percent have beaten revenue estimates.

    Outlook on the economy looking at the Banks and Financial companies

    Last night Moody’s changed their outlook on the economy on the bank ratings for Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo and warned they may need to downgrade their senior debt of several regional banks because now that the US banking system has moved beyond the depths of the financial crisis, the probability of government support for these banks could be lower.
    Moody’s has warned that if regulatory reform lessened the willingness of the US government to stand behind our largest banks, it would have to close the ratings uplift gap. By its actions last night, it would appear that Moody’s has now begun that process.
    The outlook on the economy in the commodities market of  Oil and Gold seem to be bright going forward but at the moment they are pulling back setting up very soon for some nice entry levels to buy into on the pullbacks.
    So our outlook on the economy next week looks to be the time to enter some short positions on the Indexes and long Gold and oil.

    The out look on the economy will be confirmed  tonight and Friday we are ready to jump when all earnings are out the way.

     
  • Michael Brook

    Michael Brook 1:51 pm on July 26, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , , Trading Success   

    Consistency – When The Rollercoaster Stops 

    Consistency in Trading– When the Rollercoaster Stops.

    Many traders experience trading like a rollercoaster of emotions, especially in their early learning journey. They find themselves in high peaks of euphoria as trades go extremely well. Then they plummet into despair as they are hammered by an uncaring market into a black hole in their trading balance. Trading success comes when a trader can acheive consistent results.

    As time passes, many traders survive the learning journey, either through their own skill or with the help of a mentor or coach. Of the survivors, some learn to smooth the path of the rollercoaster, at least for part of the time. Others, however, do not and they continue to experience extreme highs and lows in their emotions.

    Instead of these traders being in control of their trading, the rollercoaster of the market is in charge of them. As if they were locked into their seats, these traders feel a rush of excitement with every upward move and the dread of impending sudden plunges.

    Riding a rollercoaster may be exciting in the short term, but living on it is exhausting. If a trader is tired and distracted, their attention for the market is limited. If a trader is feeling under pressure, they can miss essential elements of their plan.

    Some proponents of the psychology of trading recommend becoming completely unemotional when trading. However, this is not natural for humans and so takes a lot of attention that could otherwise be applied to trading. Of course, it is possible in the short term, but emotion will leak through and this can be discouraging. Eventually, if you squash your emotions routinely, you can miss intuitive signals and your trading can become pedestrian.

    There is another way.

    If your results are inconsistent, you can bring this within your control. One of the hallmarks of expert traders is consistency in their trading results. They achieve this consistency through a number of ways.

    First, they have a clearly written trading plan that takes into account bull, bear and sideways markets and they recognise signals from the market that indicate when to switch their trading approach between these. The majority of retail traders only trade to the long side and often get hammered when the market goes short.

    Second, they know when to stop trading. If the market isn’t performing the way they would like, or if they don’t understand the market, they have no hesitation in pulling some or all of their positions out of harms way until they do understand. Novice traders don’t know when to stop, but experts do because they have experience.

    Third, expert traders know that when they are off track, either they have had a string of losing trades, or something is going on in their personal life that distracts them and they will alter their trading accordingly to maintain their effectiveness.

    Finally, expert traders are more than happy to back-test a system over extended time periods in order to prove the viability of a system of trading. We know of one trader who back tested a system for 9 months before making a single trade on it.

    What to do if you are getting inconsistent results.

    1. Examine your trading plan. Does it reflect different trade setups for different markets and when you should switch your trading from long to short.
    2. What precise criteria you have that tell you to stop trading? If you don’t have them yet, you should develop them.
    3. What type of trading are you good at? You should be able to say immediately what setups work well for you and in what markets you trade best. Expert traders only do what works for them.
    4. Examine your ability to manage your state of mind. If you have difficulty maintaining your focus you should attend our clear mind training course.
    5. Consider your relationship with risk. If you are taking on too much leverage and risk (your positions sizes are too large) consider reducing your leverage and position sizes until you are achieving consistent results.

    Trading involves risk and each trade has only a probability to success. All the expert traders we have spoken to describe periods of high stress and inconsistent results.

    This can be overcome and there is an unlimited flow of opportunity in every market for the flexible trader who trades with clear mind and a structured trading plan.

    You can learn to achieve consistency in trading. You can learn consistency in managing your emotions while trading and this feeds forward into your results. When you learn effective emotional self-management, the quality of both your on days and off days will improve. You can become comfortable with the occasional roller coaster ride because you know how to handle it.

    Imagine knowing you can let your emotions run free, whatever the market conditions, because you know you can take appropriate action with yourself and the market immediately. This is trusting yourself. It frees you to give trading your undivided attention.

    Your evidence will be more consistency in your trading results, automatic use of the skills in the Clear Mind Trading Course and a trading plan that you trust because you have tested it and it works.

    Once you are consistently achieving the trading success you desire, whether it’s in Forex trading, CFD trading or equities trading,  you can move towards the goals you chose when you first started to trade.

    A useful reference book is Enhancing Trader Performance by Dr Brett SteenBarger.

    Trading success

    Previous Blog

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 2:48 am on July 23, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: BP, , Enviromental Tragedy   

    The Mess BP Oil Spill Has Caused 

    Nearly 3 months ago a deep sea oil well exploded killing 11 people instantly and then proceeded to spew 80,000 barrels of oil into the Gulf of Mexico for 76 days and I have been amazed at how little information has been put out on the media so finding this video was a sad but great thing for me as I now know what is really happening.



    The cleanup is staged, when officials are coming down from Washington the locals are hired on mass to clean up the mess and when the officials are gone the cleanup stops! I can’t believe but no I can believe it….


    BP Oil Spill was inevitable

    Internal documents show that the BP Oil Spill was inevitable, they cut corners and safety policies including a run till it drops policy for all machinery, even though BP made $20Billion a year they wouldn’t pay to keep machinery up to date.



    Then to add insult to injury BP are the manufacturers of the dispersant and they are making money on the sale of the massive amounts of dispersant being used.


    Locals Hired to Clean Up BP Oil Spill

    This Video shows the natural beauty that is being devastated by the BP Oil Spill they should have all of the office workers from BP out in these areas cleaning up this mess, it is a disgrace to modern society and now they are getting all the locals to clean up the mess and to top it all off the employment contracts they are signing to get work because the BP Oil Spill has ruined their livleyhood, contain a clause that prevents them from making any claim in the future against BP.



    Make sure you share this page with as many people as possible to spread the word, the world has to change we can’t be run around by multinationals any longer.



    Well thats enough from me, watch and weep because I sure did.






    BP Oil Spill is a Disgrace!

    PS: make sure you click the share link and put it on facebook or wherever you can…

     
  • Trader Lyn

    Trader Lyn 11:07 pm on July 22, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: Harley Davidson, Harry Dent, HOG   

    Harry Dent on HOG 

    Hi Guys this is the latest post from HS Dent, considering the trades we are running this month I thought it quite relevant.

    Harley Davidson and 40-Something White Men

    Posted: 21 Jul 2010 08:23 AM PDT

    Anyone who has seen Harry Dent speak has no doubt seen his “Male Midlife Crisis” slide. It’s a slide that charts large “Harley-type” motorcycle purchases by age. Not shockingly, the chart has a massive spike in the early 40s and then falls off a cliff thereafter.
    HS Dent has used Harley as an example of a company whose profits are driven almost entirely by demographics. It is a product purchased by relatively high-income, early middle-aged white men and pretty much no one else. Not surprisingly, Harley had an incredible run in the 1990s and early 2000s. Baby Boomer men were in their peak chopper-buying years. But by now, the bulk of the Boomers are past that stage. The company is facing a shortage of 40-something white men.
    If you happened to catch today’s paper, you might have seen that Harley reported its earnings yesterday. Earnings were actually up to $0.30 per share, quickly sending the share price 13% higher.
    So what happened? Are younger consumers buying bikes? Are women suddenly falling in love with chrome, leather, and loud engines? Not quite.
    Investors should have read the earnings release a little closer. Harley’s earnings improvement was due almost entirely to its financial services arm. Harley’s domestic motorcycle sales were actually down 8.4% over last year’s number, and let us not forget that last year’s sales were already quite depressed.
    Nothing against Harley, of course. It’s a great company that makes an iconic product. But unfortunately, Harley is on the wrong side of a major macro demographic trend.

    Charles Lewis Sizemore, CFA
    Co-author of the recently-published Boom or Bust: Understanding and Profiting from a Changing Consumer Economy.

    Subscribe to Harry Dents Blog

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 10:48 am on July 22, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: Education, , Losing Money on the Stockmarket, Make Money in the Stockmarket, Make Money On The Stockmarket,   

    Why some people ALMOST always make money in the stockmarket 

    And why some people do make money in the Stockmarket!

    It all comes down to education and information, from my experience with teaching people how to trade for over 10 years there are big differences between those that succeed and those that fail.

    People that DON’T make money in The Stockmarket!

    Person 1. Buy a trading course put it on the bookshelf, open a trading account and listen to stock picks, start placing trades and wonder why they miss the entry and exit points… your teacher isn’t sitting next to you all day every day, YOU have to take responsibility and use the knowledge that is in the training material on the bookshelf to make decisions YOURSELF.

    Person 2. Go online and search for information on how to trade, and there is an awesome amount of information out there, some of it is really excellent and some is quite vague… the trouble with learning this way is that you get bits and pieces of information, and when you are learning a new trade or profession you need to go through the building blocks in a step by step fashion so that you have all of the pieces to make clear decisions in pressured situations, and believe me when you are losing some or A LOT of your hard earned cash in a trade it is PRESSURE!

    People who DO Make Money in

    The Stockmarket

    People who do make money in the stockmarket start by learning from the basics building one piece of knowledge on top of the other, they learn from a mentor building good systems that turn into good habits. The successful person then starts paper trading like they are using real money, recording all of their results in a trading diary analysing when the trade goes well and when the trade goes against them, they typically keep excellent records, get to know their risk tolerance and hence the kind of trading that they are comfortable with before they venture into putting real money on the line.

    Learning how to trade is a serious business, imagine if your doctor or plumber for that matter, did not go through a stage by stage learning process from the start, building their knowledge and HABITS in a successful formulae that has been proven over time utilizing the experience of their mentors to not make some of the mistakes that they and their mentors made.

    Emotional training is the major influence on a persons trading results, knowing the emotional stages of a trade gives you the understanding of how your emotions are going to play out before they happen so you are armed with the tools to fight them as the best traders work without emotion, they analyse a trade, create a plan with entry and exit points and then carry it out to the letter.

    Learning how to make money in the stockmarket is a profession that takes dedication to learn properly and will give you plenty of challenges along the way but when the penny drops it will change your life forever, unlocking you from the daily grind enabling you to do the things you want when you want and gives you the ability to earn money no matter where you are in the world.

     
  • Michael Brook

    Michael Brook 10:37 am on July 22, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , ,   

    Emotional Stages of a Trade 

    When we think about trader education, most people’s attention goes towards learning to use technical analysis or fundamentals, choosing sources of information and making sense of them with intent to identify potentially profitable positions. The media report changes in the markets and in some of the fundamentals that influence them.

    The trading psychology of traders rarely get a mention, yet these have an enormous impact on individual traders’ results. Emotions influence our capacities to take in information, process it and make functional decisions and the feedback for a trader is instant. We are not proposing that an alert, embodied, flow state will guarantee results by itself, but in combination with a good trading system and plan, it will contribute to effective decision making and hence, profits.

    To foster an understanding of the scale of problems many traders experience with trading emotions, we will outline below the different stages of a trade and events that can happen to induce emotional difficulty for traders.

    Stage 1 – Commencing a trade.

    When novice traders place a trade, there is often a mix of emotions. Excitement may be experienced about the potential for profit; fear about the potential for loss. Hesitation is often experienced if the trader is unsure about trading or about the position. These things can all happen at once or in sequence.

    Psychological research has identified this common thought process. Once a decision is made, whatever the subsequent result, people look for evidence that they have made the “right” decision after they have made it. Their perception of the probability of the identified outcome increases after the decision has been made.

    Once a trade is taken, novice traders often experience the decision as being the correct one.

    Stage 2 – Option 1 – The trade goes into profit

    When a trade goes in the correct direction, novice traders experience a flush of excitement and joy. They were right and they begin hallucinating what they can or will do with the money they will make from the trade. They begin hoping and wishing for it to go higher. The higher and faster it goes up the more excitement they feel.

    Stage 2 – Option 2 – The trade goes into loss

    Hopes are turned to dust as a great idea is smashed by an uncaring market. The emotions generated by this event can range from mild annoyance at the trade not going right, to fearful anxiety, to a complete inability to think.

    Stage 3 – It’s time to get out.

    At the time to get out, traders can be experiencing a mix of emotions. If the trade went well they can extremely joyful. If they got out at a massive loss, they can be filled with panic and intense regret at staying in for so long. Often traders can feel that the market is against them personally. Doubt and self-reproach are common when exiting at a large loss.

    Stage 4 – Post trade emotions.

    The post trade emotions can vary depending on the outcome of the trade. They can vary from wild exuberance and ongoing joy if exiting at a large profit, to devastation and recrimination if exiting at a large loss.

    Regret is a very common post trade trading emotion. Traders often regret getting out if the stock goes on to higher prices. Alternatively, they can regret not getting out earlier if an exit signal was presented and not taken immediately.

    The technical merits of the trade are rarely considered in the aftermath, nor how well the trade was executed. Yet these are essential considerations that support long term trading survival and success.

    You probably recognized some of these experiences from your own trading history. At times it may have seemed that you were the only one in the experience. However, everyone who has traded will have had some of these experiences.

    Key Understandings

    Since different emotions arise at different parts of a trade, it’s possible to predict the likelihood of their occurrence. The emotions that take place at different parts of a trade are occurring at that stage because, without being conscious of it, you have identified something important that is out of place. The natural response is strong sensation around the midline of the body, which may be called excitement when the anomaly is pleasing, or anxiety, regret etc when the anomaly is displeasing.

    For example, the emotion of regret for doing something that cost you money serves a purpose of letting you know not to do it again. The emotion of excitement for making a very good trade serves the purpose of rewarding you to do the behavior again.

    In Summary:

    * Trading Emotions are functional and they serve a purpose.
    * Trading Emotions have repeatable structures and patterns.
    * They are communications from your unconscious mind to protect and serve you.
    * Knowing the patterns enables you to have choice about which emotions to have at what time.

    How to use this information.

    Knowledge leads to choice and functional action. Knowing about yourself and how you respond to your environment allows you to engage the environment and respond to it as you choose, instead of repeating actions the way you were programmed from the past.

    When you appreciate that you may experience different emotions at different stages of a trade, you will be able to notice when they are beginning and not allow them to cloud your judgment.

    Noticing your emotions can also serve as a trigger to focus you back on the technical aspects of your trade.

    After you exit a trade, it can be helpful to reflect on what emotions you were experiencing while entering or exiting the trade. This can assist you in preventing loss making trades in the future.

    When you know your emotions can affect your trading, you can learn to use them deliberately, to help you become a better trader and make your trading more profitable.

    Improving your trading can be assisted greatly by understanding your own emotional patterns and learning effective ways to improve or vary your emotional responses.

    More about us

    Trading State Pty Ltd is a company committed to assisting traders to deal with the emotional aspects of trading and to improve their trading performance. We offer training courses and coaching in state management and emotional flexibility for traders.

    If you think you have had problems with the emotions of trading, you are not alone.

    Together we have over 30 years experience in assisting traders to achieve better performance in their trading and in trading ourselves.

    Whatever issue you have with your trading experience, we can assist you. For more information about us and previous articles on our blog visit our website. http://www.tradingstate.com.au

    © Trading State Pty Ltd. All rights reserved 2010

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 8:48 pm on July 21, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , ,   

    Earnings Update 

    Good Evening All, Earnings season is upon us in full force and the results are making a major impact on the market, as per usual.

    Goldman Sachs results showed the real story on bank income slowing, as the heat from the SEC has obviously impacted on their trading style, having the SEC looking over their shoulder required them to be more discretionary and this has hit their earnings hard, a drop of 82%.

    Second-quarter net income of $453 million was hurt by one-time charges, including a settlement of a civil fraud suit brought by the Securities and Exchange Commission and a British tax on bank executives’ bonuses, total cost of these charges was over 1 billion dollars.

    The UK tax on bank emloyee bonuses over 25,000 GBP earned the UK government a bonus of around GBP 2.5 Billion so far this year not a bad little idea to curb the extraordinary pay of these financial terrorists and a big slug on bank earnings.

    More banks will reveal their contribution to the UK tax coffers in the coming days with Credit Suisse estimating its charge at CHF400 million ($381.5 million) releasing earnings tomorrow, UBS earlier in the year said it expected to pay CHF300 million ($286 million) releasing earnings on July 27 and Deutsche Bank estimated its bill at EUR225 million ($290 million), a figure it is expected to update when it reports earnings July 27.

    Earnings Charts

    Earnings Move Market

    The market last night looked like going into a huge dive on a series of bad earnings reports from Goldman Sachs, Texas Instruments, IBM and Whirlpool, all the bad news was obliterated by Stella earnings from Apple up 70% or more, these guys have absolutely hit the nail on the head with the IPad and this I beleive has raised awareness of the quality of other MApple products like the Mac Book, as they sold more of these than they have EVER..!

    I will keep you posted as the earnings come out and then we will be lining up the PUTs when the news runs out of steam and the market realises that no-one is spending and the economy is going back into recession…

     
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