Why do you need to know what is happening in the world?
Sometimes we may not want to read or listen to news, after all it can be mostly bad news we are hearing most of the time.
If you’re a carpenter, a cleaner, a hairdresser or a taxi driver you are the first that should know and anyone else with investments tied to real estate or the stock market. It doesn’t matter if you are employed or in business, we all have a responsibility to pay attention to what is happening in the world around us.
Ask yourself- What would be the implications here in Australia to a housing decline or bubble in China? If that were to happen, it would hurt us here in Australia via our exports and our mining industry, so I have been keeping my eyes open overseas. You need to dig to find the right news as it often doesn’t necessarily hit the global headlines and often what you find in mainstream media is manipulated.
I found this article in the Bangkok Post..
“Hit by weak demand and lack of funding, developers have slashed prices for some new projects in the city by more than 20 percent, the China Business News said, causing an outcry among those who bought at higher levels
In the latest incident, some 200 home owners on Wednesday besieged the sales office for a project of leading developer Greenland Group, demanding refunds, the Shanghai Daily said. “We require a refund because the loss we are suffering now is too great for us to afford,” the paper quoted a protestor as saying. He paid 17,000 yuan ($2,678) per square metre last year and claimed the developer had cut the price by around 30 percent to boost sales.”
Money morning also quoted some interesting facts on our current housing market here in Australia. Kris Sayce wrote “Back to the falling Aussie housing market. Now that ANZ economists have finally admitted house prices are falling. When owners see the price starting to fall they fear it could fall further. So why wait and potentially sell at a lower price when you can sell now at a higher price.
Sure, volume increases when the price rises too. That’s the rush to buy before the price goes higher. We’ve seen that with the housing market too… now we’re seeing the reverse.
Trouble is it’s pretty hard for most economists to do that as they spend most of their time playing with GDPs, CPIs and other irrelevant statistics. They don’t understand that economics is all about human behaviour (how people think, act and react), not spreadsheets and numbers.
And that’s why every last one of them failed to predict Australia’s falling housing market.”
The activity of more sellers than buyers in the property market will cause over supply and prices to fall the investors that flip properties may cause an oversupply which has fuelled the real estate sharp rises. And now the first home buyers are becoming scarce 2009 fuelled the real estate rise driven also with the 21K home grant incentive that’s gone now reduced to $7K.
Can we truly be in for a correction? I think it’s important to consider that we do have one of the highest levels in real estate values and our first home buyers are being priced out of the market. We have seen the rest of the world’s real estate markets correct, when it is our time wouldn’t there be early warning signs to look for? maybe they’re already out there.
There are more effects from either a full or partial Euro collapse in the future which is spreading unknown contagion for all of us. In some way it will cause a slowdown or decline economically.
The bailout out is not clear. It’s unclear how Italy will fare next. MF Global, a bank and brokerage service just went into chapter 11 bankruptcy. They effect debt owed to London and the US Banks like JP Morgan. It’s like a cancer that spread in 2008 - one bank after the other falling like dominos, the knock on effect of who’s next in danger.
And the US debt is no better. A recent downgrade in August from Moody’s. Their debt has risen over 14 Trillion USD and that’s without Medicare or Social Security. The US is flat broke, how long can the Federal Reserve push a button electronically to send money to companies (well the banks) for “Quantative easing” as they call it?? I call it “how to blow up another $6 Trillion dollars“.
I love hearing what Hardy used to say to Laurel “Another fine mess you have gotten us into”
Governments and politics and banks have gotten us into this global mess and have no solution that will get us out. Maybe they’re not supposed (and that is their true intention) but we can have a fun ride down like 2008.
If we watch what is happening we can prepare ourselves for the greatest opportunity, if we prepare ourselves and study what is happening we will make the right decisions and use this as an opportunity and not become a victim to bad news.
Many economists I have listened to for years are saying the same thing, one of these is Harry Dent. I have just finished reading his new book, the “Great Crash Ahead”. While none of us have a crystal ball, it is a very interesting read.
Dent is predicting a 2012-2014 housing collapse here in Australia by 50% and a retest of 2009 stock market lows. I wouldn’t like to be that precise. I believe it’s coming after a retest of market highs. The Stock market is manipulated. The professional money push it higher to sell and offload they also change their positions to the downside.
I believe this to be one of the key factors, watching what they buy and they do this usually in market rallies, not falls. They hedge or buy puts which are at their lowest volatility. Makes sense doesn’t it to watch the “insiders”?
I urge you to rent out the movie “The Inside Job”. It’s a documentary exposing what happened in the 2008 Lehmann brothers collapse.
The smart money knew what was coming so they sold most of their CDO’s (Collaterized debt obligations) which were toxic mortgages to new buyers like Lehmann brothers, Meryl Lynch, Wachovia Bank to name a few and immediately hedged which means they bet on them falling. Why would they do that? Because they knew the risk of default was inevitable.
What is happening today has an eerily similiar picture of what happened in 2008. So what can we do? We all live busy lives, kids, houses, finances, work, holidays- it seems we are always on the go. I can’t stress enough how important it is to go out and do research on the financial world, because ultimately you are responsible for deciding how you invest and live your life.
You shouldn’t take advice from any one person, not me, not your broker, always ask questions and look at the bigger picture. The thing I love about being a trader is I have a choice. I can’t change the rules, laws, bills or taxes that are put upon me, but I can keep my eyes out for opportunities to trade, regardless of the market direction.