Tagged: economy RSS

  • Trader Lyn

    Trader Lyn 2:31 pm on November 10, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: , , economic meltdown, economy, , , global economy, , greek debt, , Lehmann brothers, MF Global, protection, stock market crash, , trading the downside   

    Greece, Italy, what next? 

    Market contagion spreads to more European countries with Italy on the brink of collapse, Italian 10 year bond yields rise above 7% which is widely deemed unsustainable, Italy’s debt is E1.9 Trillion and at 120% of  GDP and in need of 360 Billion in 2012 just to pay loans… but why should we care about all of this here in Australia?

    Why are our banks down 4% today? because we are part of the global dominos, so it’s important that we understand the risks to us at home.

    In my opinion, Italy is too big to fail and too big to save, sounding familiar? a bit like Lehmann brothers, on steroids. Four years on now from the major stock market crash and history is on the verge of repeating it all over again.

    Just last week MF Global collapsed. MF Global were a trading desk for the Federal Reserve.  How did it happen?  Greed, all because of leveraged risk.

    There is only one way we can save ourselves get on the ride down and profit. You can’t deny a world economic meltdown is not an ideal situation and has many adverse affects on everyone in the world, however – there are opportunities we can take to use this as our protection against this mess that the people & institutions who are ‘supposed’ to be protecting us, have created.

    We really have no choice but to take things into our own hands.

    Take a look at my video update at http://youtu.be/dxJu2HfZVBE

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 10:31 am on March 15, 2011 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: disaster, , economy, , , red cross, ,   

    Disaster in Japan Triggers Plunge in Market 

    The earthquake that hit Japan on Friday followed by a Tsunami closed the Japanese Markets and sent Asia and Europe lower.

    As we have all seen and heard on news stations across the world, the 8.9-magnitude earthquake rocked the nation’s northeast coast and sent a 30-foot high tsunami crashing inland, knocking out electricity at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station and causing cooling systems to fail in at least three reactors.

    The need to bring trillions of Yen back into the country to rebuild will cause a short term demand on the Yen.
    Looking back in history a 3 month rally took place after the Kobe earthquake in 1995, in fact the Yen rose by 20%.

    The Bank of Japan poured a record 15 trillion yen into Japan’s economy as the earthquake triggered a plunge in stocks and surge in credit risk, and the Nikkei had it’s biggest one-day drop since December 08, with the stock average closing down 6.2 percent.

    Japan generates 30% of its electricity through nuclear energy, and it is said that electricity has been cut to millions of homes.

    Assessing the true magnitude of the damage of this disaster may take months. One can only imagine what the people of Japan must be going through and what it would feel like to be there.

    It seems a lot of people are asking whether Mother Nature has turned against us, with the recent floods and cyclones in Queensland, the earthquakes in Christchurch and now Japan has faced not only an earthquake, but a Tsunami as well.

    Whatever the reason behind them, it shows us now, more than ever how lucky we are to live on this amazing planet, and for the loved ones around us. My thoughts are with those who have loved ones in Japan right now.

    To donate to the Red Cross appeal go to http://www.redcross.org.au/japan2011.htm.

     
  • Lyn Summers

    Lyn Summers 5:59 pm on July 29, 2010 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment
    Tags: Bank of america, , caterpillar, citigroup, , DOW, , economy, financial crisis, GDP, , Initial Claims, , market downtrend, moodys, , , quantative easing, regulatory reform, revenue estimates, , S&P500, , US government, wells fargo   

    What is the outlook on the economy? 29th July 2010 

    We all want to know the outlook on the economy going forward

    it’s not great at all,  but markets rally up in down turns just as they fall in up markets,  we need to let the market confirm its long term downward direction before going short these rallies are designed to take the shorts out.

    The outlook on the economy is not healthy when you look at the unemployment rate.
    Initial claims tonight will be our first way of looking at the outlook on the economy each week, let’s see whether there is a short term improvement or it is worse. Then we have the GDP numbers tomorrow night they are expected to be released at 2.9%, then on August the 10th the FED members meet again to discuss quantative easing which means printing more money, if they do it’s very likely that we will see a similar rally of March 2009 but on a much -much smaller scale.
    Another round of quantative easing will be the last tool Bernanke can use to avoid the next leg down in this recession.
    outlook on the economy
    If flooding the system with more money fails to lift equity markets, then all hell will break loose in the markets and it will be a perfect time to go short.
    By doing this they will have used all their aces up their sleeves as they can’t lower interests rate they’re already are at 0%.

    Outlook on the economy in the short term

    If the S&P breaks above 1120 a retest of 1150-1170 which puts the DOW at 10,700.
    High unemployment remains a drag on the economy I have noticed the companies that have exceeded their quarterly earnings have been companies like Caterpillar, United Parcel, and John Deere to name a few companies that have revenue outside of the US.
    The stream of earnings news continues to be strong, now that 49 percent of the S&P 500 companies have reported. Earnings have risen an average 42 percent, and 77 percent of the companies have beaten earnings estimates. Sixty-four percent have beaten revenue estimates.

    Outlook on the economy looking at the Banks and Financial companies

    Last night Moody’s changed their outlook on the economy on the bank ratings for Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo and warned they may need to downgrade their senior debt of several regional banks because now that the US banking system has moved beyond the depths of the financial crisis, the probability of government support for these banks could be lower.
    Moody’s has warned that if regulatory reform lessened the willingness of the US government to stand behind our largest banks, it would have to close the ratings uplift gap. By its actions last night, it would appear that Moody’s has now begun that process.
    The outlook on the economy in the commodities market of  Oil and Gold seem to be bright going forward but at the moment they are pulling back setting up very soon for some nice entry levels to buy into on the pullbacks.
    So our outlook on the economy next week looks to be the time to enter some short positions on the Indexes and long Gold and oil.

    The out look on the economy will be confirmed  tonight and Friday we are ready to jump when all earnings are out the way.

     

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